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BRUSSELS — Sporting two hats — one coordinating the EU’s coverage agenda and the opposite main his personal nation — Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo can be strolling a tightrope when he visits China this week.
Not solely are tensions mounting over the EU’s yawning commerce deficit with China, however De Croo’s go to comes days forward of a presidential election in Taiwan, through which President Xi Jinping has intervened by saying the island nation’s reunification with China is a “historic inevitability.”
De Croo departs for his two-day state go to on Wednesday, 10 days after his nation assumed the presidency of the Council of the EU, the intergovernmental a part of the 27-nation bloc. The journey comes at a troublesome time within the relationship, with tensions on show in December on the first face-to-face summit between EU and Chinese language leaders in 4 years.
Final week, China additionally launched a tit-for-tat commerce investigation into EU liquor exports, signaling its displeasure over a probe launched by the Fee final fall into subsidies for made-in-China electrical autos.
It quantities to a diplomatic minefield for the 48-year-old De Croo, for all his expertise of operating a seven-party, bilingual coalition authorities.
“In any respect value, we should keep away from a state of affairs the place the Belgian place contradicts the European place,” stated Tanguy Struye, professor of worldwide relations at UCLouvain and an knowledgeable on EU-China relations.
“If Belgium takes a unique stance than the EU, it will clearly profit China, who will as soon as once more have the ability to divide us.”
De Croo’s go to culminates on Friday when he meets Xi in one of many Chinese language president’s final public appearances earlier than this weekend’s presidential election in Taiwan — which China regards as a breakaway province.
A victory for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Social gathering, which Beijing sees as pro-independence, might infuriate the Chinese language authorities and set off a navy response, safety analysts warn.
Again residence, in the meantime, current stories have uncovered China’s penetration of Belgian politics, in a scandal involving a far-right lawmaker paid by Chinese language spies to affect political choices.
Temper swing
The temper music can be fairly completely different this time in comparison with 2019, when a Belgian commerce mission led by then-Overseas Minister Didier Reynders and Princess Astrid sought enterprise alternatives accompanied by over 300 enterprise executives.
Then the pandemic hit, disrupting business provide chains and remodeling perceptions of alternative and danger in Europe’s commerce relationship with China.
Not solely did the financial dislocation attributable to COVID inflate the EU’s bilateral commerce deficit with China to €400 billion in 2022, however the bloc additionally realized it had develop into too depending on Beijing in delicate sectors like vitality and inexperienced tech — such because the batteries that energy electrical autos.
The buzzword in Brussels is at present the right way to “de-risk” the EU’s financial relationship with China. That is simpler stated than executed, nevertheless, and the EU faces laborious selections in persevering with to commerce with Beijing whereas safeguarding its strategic pursuits. A brand new financial safety technique, introduced by Fee President Ursula von der Leyen final yr, is because of be unveiled in late January.
Compared to its neighbor, the Netherlands, which final yr bowed to U.S. calls to limit exports to China by tech champion ASML — the main maker of chip fabrication tools — Belgium has been sluggish to meet up with EU international locations which are extra hawkish on commerce with China.
Simply final week, Flemish public transport supplier De Lijn got here beneath fireplace for ordering new buses from China’s BYD fairly than from native producer Van Hool. In French-speaking Wallonia, Chinese language e-commerce big Alibaba’s important presence at Belgium’s largest cargo airport has additionally raised nationwide safety issues.
“I’m an enormous fan of free commerce, and commerce with the remainder of the world and in addition with China is a crucial one, however I simply need to see extra components of reciprocity,” De Croo advised POLITICO in late December.
“For me, there is no such thing as a drawback with the Chinese language coming to take over one thing right here, however I simply need to have the ability to do it with them too,” the liberal prime minister stated.
The enterprise delegation on this journey can be far smaller — simply 25 CEOs will accompany De Croo to Beijing. Through the go to, he and Chinese language counterpart Li Qiang will signal a memorandum of understanding on investing in inexperienced vitality.
Strategic reciprocity
Francesca Ghiretti, a senior analyst on the Adarga Analysis Institute, stated it was “fairly strategic” to place reciprocity again on the agenda of relations with China. However she warned towards shedding sight of the progress that has been made on financial safety and sliding as a substitute into tit-for-tat commerce dynamics.
Just like the Netherlands, Belgium remains to be determining the right way to protect its strategic belongings from Beijing’s grasp. The nation is residence to Imec, a world-leading semiconductor analysis middle, which additionally has a presence in China.
Imec was lately urged to decide on sides. The analysis middle, which will get tens of hundreds of thousands in authorities subsidies yearly, ought to focus “primarily on the like-minded international locations,” Flemish Economic system Minister Jo Brouns advised POLITICO in November.
The trace was swiftly taken: Imec CEO Luc Van den Hove stated in December that there are nonetheless initiatives with Chinese language firms, however promised these “can be phased out” throughout a go to to the U.S., the place Imec lately opened a brand new workplace.
Pieter Haeck, Barbara Moens and Stuart Lau contributed reporting.
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